{"id":62,"date":"2011-10-03T10:38:02","date_gmt":"2011-10-03T09:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedissenter.co.uk\/?p=666"},"modified":"2011-10-03T10:38:02","modified_gmt":"2011-10-03T09:38:02","slug":"conservative-by-any-name","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/?p=62","title":{"rendered":"Conservative by any name."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"conservative-party-logo\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It was hard enough to achieve Conservative Party organisation in Northern Ireland in the first instance, back in the 1980s. Central office was hostile, and much of the Party leadership at best reluctant to become involved in the region. On the ground it might have seemed mad to set up Conservative branches in Northern Ireland at the end of 10\u00a0years of Thatcher Government and in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There was also an Ulster Unionist Party which was dominant within the unionist electorate and, despite the recent history, remained on friendly terms with Conservatives generally at senior levels and in Parliament.<\/p>\n

Despite the turmoil, naysayers, hostility and challenges, the determination of those early pioneers of the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland gained Council seats and had a reasonable stab at the North Down Westminster seat.<\/p>\n

Fast forward thirty years and we find a Central Office bending over backwards to be helpful, a Party leader (now Prime Minister) who visits, espouses unionism, and encourages the local Party to be local and relevant to Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n

Some local Conservatives, however, think the Conservative brand is bad and that<\/em> is why they ended with nothing, zip, nadda after three consecutive elections \u2013 don\u2019t think they see Jim Nicholson as \u2018one of us\u2019 \u2013 though some might point to other reasons for the Northern Ireland Conservatives to gain electoral traction.<\/p>\n

<\/span>thedissenter<\/strong><\/em> has not\u00a0 been convinced of any principled or particularly practical or positive thinking\u00a0 around the revamping, relaunching and repackaging of the Northern Ireland\u00a0 Conservatives under David Cameron: electoral positioning<\/a> always seemed to\u00a0dominate his relationship to Northern Ireland; though not the only area that seems calculated <\/a>and poorly considered<\/a>.\u00a0 But support from the central Party, including finance,\u00a0is real and\u00a0appears genuine.<\/p>\n

Since the Northern Ireland Assembly elections there has been a bubbling undercurrent seeking to change the name of\u00a0 the Northern Ireland Conservatives to something else. This was flagged up by\u00a0Alex Kane<\/a> in the News Letter. This resulted in a\u00a0response from the Chairman of the Northern Ireland Conservatives <\/a>Irwin Armstrong\u00a0to which Alex responded in his weekly column<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for\u00a0Irwin Armstong and the Northern Ireland Conservatives, those bubbles keep on rising to the top.<\/p>\n

No doubt well-meaning, the\u00a0thinking of those seeking change in the Conservative name are naively missing\u00a0the point. There is a deep lack of political capacity within the Northern\u00a0Ireland Conservatives, mostly being freshmen to politics, and inevitably there\u00a0are those who would seem to be imposing an agenda on a relatively weak body\u00a0politic. This is reflected in the arguments being made to underscore the case for\u00a0changing the Conservative Party name in Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n

Discussion around the\u00a0 positioning for a newly titled Party is presented as being one where \u201ccentrist,\u00a0moderate, pro-UK politics, can be delivered, in a way that engages people of\u00a0all classes, genders, religious persuasions and ethnicities.\u201d\u00a0Fine. At the same time it is also suggested\u00a0that there is great reservoir of support for a moderate centrist grouping among\u00a0those disillusioned with the direction of the so-called \u2018centre-ground\u2019 as it presently\u00a0exists. This does beg the question that if a centrist moderate proposition is\u00a0not in the so-called<\/em> centre ground,\u00a0where is it?<\/p>\n

The centrist moderate proposition seems to be revolve\u00a0around everything that is \u2018non-sectarian\u2019; excluding the Alliance Party which\u00a0is apparently a usurper in the centre, being in fact a product of sectarianism:\u00a0thedissenter<\/strong><\/em> understands how the Alliance could be described as itself a\u00a0product of sectarianism, but that does not make it sectarian. Defining something\u00a0by what you are \u2018non-of\u2019 does not define what you are, it merely narrows the parameters to a greater or lesser extent.<\/p>\n

Where is the centre<\/em> of politics in Northern\u00a0Ireland?\u00a0 thedissenter<\/strong><\/em> is asking because\u00a0this impacts on what might be the name of any new centrist-rightish Party that is not in the so-called<\/em> centre ground. This\u00a0question seems to be a\u00a0preoccupation of those who are seeking to re-style the\u00a0Northern Ireland Conservatives. Can it be described with terms such as \u2018Right\u2019\u00a0 which suggests ideology?\u00a0 Can it be described as \u2018progressive\u2019 or \u2018liberal\u2019, which have their difficulties for positioning your politics\u00a0not least among the unionist electorate<\/a>. Being truly liberal is certainly not being in\u00a0the centre, and is positively radical rather than perceptively moderate in\u00a0respect of policy development.<\/p>\n

Then there is image and moving forward. If there is to\u00a0be a break and repositioning away from the \u2018Conservative Party\u2019 brand then\u00a0there needs to be a distinct local identity. Those taking the lead would need\u00a0 to be local<\/em>. That would also mean creating some distance with the central Conservative Party. Being a local cheerleader for David Cameron<\/a> is a non-starter. Any plan to bring\u00a0in big Conservative names as speakers would seem counter-intuitive.<\/p>\n

Tie your funding, timetable and proposition to the Conservative\u00a0Central Office and leading names of the Conservative Party and people will see\u00a0that as being Conservative: if it looks Conservative, talks Conservative and\u00a0walks alongside the Conservatives, then it is a Conservative Party. If you act\u00a0and work as Conservative in all but name, why not be Conservative in name<\/em>?<\/p>\n

So let us presume the new Party proposition and\u00a0new name is sorted. Where would the new \u2018not-the-Conservative-Party\u2019 voters be\u00a0found? Yes there are many people who do not vote in elections. The argument\u00a0goes that once a proposition that will be attractive to the \u2018disillusioned\u2019 is\u00a0found, hey presto you can\u00a0create a new space in\u00a0Northern Ireland politics. Perhaps. Only if\u00a0you understand who isn\u2019t voting, and the sort of proposition that might capture\u00a0their attention. \u00a0There has been a great\u00a0deal of discussion about the BMW & BBQ group, with little convincing\u00a0evidence that this is where elusive voters are to be found.<\/p>\n

In the run-up to the\u00a02011 Assembly elections the Belfast Telegraph launched \u2018True Colours<\/a>\u2019\u00a0which was a chance for readers to see which\u00a0Party they might support: a questionnaire based on manifesto points. Not only\u00a0did the result provide the Party for which you are most likely to vote, it also\u00a0provided percentages on how close you were to other parties. Manifesto\u00a0positions were not generally presented in forthright, black and white, like it\u00a0or reject it terms \u2013 plenty of wriggle room. So change an answer here or there,\u00a0and you could easily change your \u2018Party preference\u2019 outcome.<\/p>\n

What was most striking about the True Colours exercise was how little it took to change Party, and how\u00a0much of each Party (in percentage terms) with which you agreed (according to the exercise).\u00a0 In summary, there wasn\u2019t much between the\u00a0Northern Ireland Parties\u2019 manifestos on the left\/right index: take away the \u2018unionist\u2019,\u00a0\u2018nationalist\u2019 or \u2018other\u2019 labels and they are all much of a muchness:\u00a0middle-class, middle of the road; and effectively aimed at the BMW & BBQ set.<\/p>\n

If you are looking\u00a0for a disillusioned and non-voting public in Northern Ireland, by far the\u00a0largest fertile territory would be the large sprawling estates in areas across\u00a0Northern Ireland, but particularly in the larger towns and cities. Anecdotally, as few as twenty-percent of the electorate might turn out to vote from these areas. The UUP, which once held sway here, lost\u00a0that vote a long time ago to the DUP, mostly. The DUP has more\u00a0recently lost the trust and confidence among the estates as it moved into the UUP\u2019s urban middle-class vote. Neither the DUP or\u00a0UUP appear to have any strategy to win votes back.<\/p>\n

A presumption that this electorate is alien to a Conservative message is wrong. Certainly it would\u00a0be a challenge to win over.<\/p>\n

Northern Ireland needs the sort of radical restructuring in economic and political outlook of the Thatcher years, updated, of course. More of the same will not deliver. What is absent from the discussion among\u00a0Conservatives in Northern Ireland is what would make them stand out in respect\u00a0of policy and principle that relates and connects with a broad base of unionist opinion.\u00a0 In respect of available vote,\u00a0 however, that will need to be wider and deeper than the existing parties to\u00a0succeed.<\/p>\n

Thatcher years saw Conservative\u00a0policy\u00a0standing up to entrenched interests which resisted change: policy that empowered the individual over the State, breaking monopolies of economic and\u00a0political patronage. It championed the small businessman. It championed\u00a0meritocracy and freedom: individual rights against the overbearing State.<\/p>\n

No doubt the\u00a0Conservatives would see the vast \u2018loyalist\u2019 (or \u2018nationalist\u2019) estates beyond their reach. That is not necessarily so. Thatcher built a policy agenda that\u00a0addressed the economy and reform which appealed to that very constituency;\u00a0 building an electoral base that carried the Conservative Party to successive election victories for well over a decade.<\/p>\n

Putting principle at the core of\u00a0policy development, Margaret Thatcher communicated a populist policy agenda that re-engaged the\u00a0aspirant classes to the Conservative Party \u2013 much to the horror of the\u00a0paternalist One Nation grandees, and to the Left.<\/p>\n

There seems to be a similar debate in Scotland <\/a>, though in truth the Scottish Conservative Party has elected representatives at all levels on which to build.<\/p>\n

While there was little difference\u00a0in votes at the 2010 Westminster election between the SNP, Liberals and\u00a0Conservatives behind Labour, the Tory vote is spread too thinly to gain seats<\/a>. The Conservatives rose to third largest\u00a0Party at the Holyrood election<\/a>, even through the electoral gap between the\u00a0Parties was more marked. Then there are the obvious reasons not to change the Conservative Party name in Scotland <\/a>which have been articulated elsewhere.<\/p>\n

While\u00a0history has been unkind<\/a>, that latent base in Scotland may make it difficult to claim \u2018we were Tory, but we are not any more, so forget about all that, we are all new and improved\u2019.<\/p>\n

Although very\u00a0different in demography and politics, for the Conservative Party the discussion\u00a0over names in Scotland and Northern Ireland has coincided. The same issues ought\u00a0to be at the core of consideration.<\/p>\n