{"id":710,"date":"2019-03-11T20:30:12","date_gmt":"2019-03-11T20:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedissenter.co.uk\/?p=710"},"modified":"2019-03-11T20:30:12","modified_gmt":"2019-03-11T20:30:12","slug":"border-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/?p=710","title":{"rendered":"Border control"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>&#8220;Let&#8217;s get some perspective on that 0.001% risk to the EU single market collapsing in chaos.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>A while back, in January, on the Clare Byrne show <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SITARMS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a guest who was ex Irish Military<\/a> made a not often heard point on the Irish Border that so obsesses the EU and virtually every commentator on Brexit.<\/p>\n<p>His point, that there are three types of border.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>An open border\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 pretty much the CTA for people between UK and Republic of Ireland. For goods, generally within Schenghen, or between States in the USA. That doesn\u2019t mean no differences, simply that those differences are not especially managed at or on a border crossing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A controlled border\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 this can be light or not so light. For example anyone from the UK or Republic of Ireland still has to go through passport control when entering a Schenghen member country, and on return to point of departure. While borders are always territorial they can be located anywhere \u2013 the USA has pre-Authorisation Immigration at Dublin Airport, with passengers entering USA once past the US Border officials. Controlled borders require visas or visa waivers for people, and tariffs and checks that are paperless or physical in triplicate for goods; and for services there are sometimes regulations and\/or controls on operation. These are all the stuff of international law and treaties, and of international disputes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A closed border\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 was the Berlin Wall, and many other States whose borders were to keep their own people in as much as others\u2019 out. These were usually highly militarised and with physical barriers. There was some possibility to cross such borders \u2013 an exchange of West Marks to East Marks and a tram ride for the adventurous. Thankfully the world has fewer to these than were common even 40 years ago. The line between North and South Korea is perhaps the only obvious such border that might spring to mind today. The chaos of Syria might make that a border few wish to cross, more from confusion and ill-defined order than any physical barrier, but the problem arises perhaps that it is not a closed border in any sense. That said a closed border is just that \u2013 closed to crossing.<\/p>\n<p>Where on the point between the description of open border and closed border do we put the mark on the map between the UK and the Republic of Ireland over the past half-century? Undeniably the current land border is fairly open and is in considerable contrast to the border during the height of the IRA terrorist years, and moving through ports and airports is completed with considerably more ease.<\/p>\n<p>Yet even at the height of the IRA terror there was never a completely closed border.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/NkA11LKEjew\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>While effort was made to close some minor roads, this was done to endeavour to reduce the ability of the IRA to use such roads to escape into the Republic which always seemed rather ambivalent towards extraditing IRA suspects back North.<\/p>\n<p>The recent images conjured up by those supporting Remain in the Brexit debate miss (deliberately or indifferently) the point that the few watch towers along the border were there to monitor and protect the largely on-going and uninterrupted flow of traffic of people and goods crossing the border.<\/p>\n<p>With the terror largely gone it is hard to actually understand why anyone would assert the idea that army watchtowers would be back along the border anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p>Fact is the border will remain fairly open, despite Brexit.<\/p>\n<p>The Common Travel Area encompassing the British Isles means that for people travelling North, South, East and West across our islands, travel will be as open as ever: the same travel inconveniences will apply when entering the Schengen area within the EU; not that much really. For people there will still be an open border.<\/p>\n<p>What is being discussed with Brexit around Single Customs Area and Customs Union is the degree of control required to manage the difference in trade and regulatory policy between two jurisdictions the UK and EU. It is a matter of trade management.<\/p>\n<p>Again, the image conjured by Remain supporters is a memory of long queues of lorries and vehicles at customs posts all along the border \u2013 and again conveniently often conflated, or inflated, due to added security checking at key transit points.<\/p>\n<p>Even the most recent of these memories would have been at a time when mobile phones were still bricks attached by cable to a breeze-block of a battery. Computerisation, IT, electronic processing has happened since that time. It has transformed the international management of trade. Only a very small percentage of non-EU trade is subject to a physical check.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/openeurope.org.uk\/today\/blog\/progress-irish-border-issue-will-require-sides-start-talking-trade\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">99% of customs declarations for non-EU trade are currently received electronically by HMRC<\/a>. These do not necessarily require the presence of border guards and checkpoints, nor should it necessarily mean technology or cameras at the border.<\/p>\n<p>Technological solutions\u00a0<em>away<\/em>\u00a0from the border, such as electronic pre-clearance, should be under serious consideration going forward. Other goods checking likely at border would be a variety of safety and security checks, from verifying the safety of the supply chain, to checking regulatory compliance, and conducting veterinary, phytosanitary or quarantine controls. While technology is not entirely a solution, controls are less necessary when both countries agree as partners to recognise each other\u2019s standards, regulations and security enforcement with goodwill; and even then, checking is not essential at the actual border.<\/p>\n<p>With all but a tiny proportion of trade subjected to physical checks it is difficult to understand exactly why scaling up to cope with EU27\/UK trade would be so challenging. <a href=\"https:\/\/webarchive.oireachtas.ie\/parliament\/media\/committees\/finance\/2017\/niall-cody,-chairman,-revenue-commissioners---statement.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Irish Revenue Commission was once of the same opinion<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cTo put this in some context, Revenue processes around 1.4 million customs declarations every year. Of these 53% are imports and 47% exports, and around 57,000 transit arrangements. Exports are generally checked only for safety and security reasons and in 2016, less than 0.5% of export declarations were checked. Customs checks mainly apply to imports. In 2016, 6% of import declarations were checked and less than 2% were physically checked. The vast majority of these checks were carried out in approved warehouses and other premises, with a very small number at a port or airport.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe low level of import checks is the result of pre-authorisation of traders, advance lodgement of declarations and an extensive system of post-clearance checks, including customs audit, which are carried out at traders\u2019 premises. \u201cAuthorised Economic Operators\u201d (AEOs) have a special status in the system and under agreed protocols are allowed to operate greatly simplified customs procedures. There are currently 133 AEOs and these account for 82% of all imports and 89% of exports. It will be very important that the bulk of trade continues to be through AEOs after Brexit.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>All of this is probably the foundation of the recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parliament.uk\/business\/committees\/committees-a-z\/commons-select\/northern-ireland-affairs-committee\/news-parliament-2017\/implications-of-backstop-report-published-17-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NI Affairs Committee Report suggesting technology was possible in due course<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Not that it hasn\u2019t been said before.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">We&#8217;ve had no put up with 3 years of remoaners telling us it&#8217;s impossible to trade beef and milk across the Irish border without a 700 high wall OR staying in the EU.<\/p>\n<p>Great to hear common sense from Lord Wolfson. The border is easily resolvable <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/marr?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#marr<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StandUp4Brexit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StandUp4Brexit<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/brexit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#brexit<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9zl1Fc1oSV\">pic.twitter.com\/9zl1Fc1oSV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alexander Hall (@AEHALL1983) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AEHALL1983\/status\/1051564094543851526?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>An important point there, that we broadly still use seventeenth century ideas to collect tariffs of just \u00a33.5bn while the British Revenue collects \u00a3125bn in VAT receipts, largely on self-assessment. That would be \u00a33.5bn of tariffs on <a href=\"https:\/\/researchbriefings.parliament.uk\/ResearchBriefing\/Summary\/SN02815#fullreport\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00a3352bn of non-EU world imports in goods and services to the UK:<\/a>\u00a0which is about 1%. Total <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cso.ie\/en\/releasesandpublications\/er\/gei\/goodsexportsandimportsdecember2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Irish imports in 2018 \u20ac90bn<\/a>, of which Northern ireland represented just \u20ac1.4bn or just about 1.5%. <a href=\"http:\/\/trade.ec.europa.eu\/doclib\/docs\/2013\/december\/tradoc_151969.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Total imports to EU28 in 2108 equalled\u00a0<span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">\u20ac1,977.5bn<\/span><\/a>. If we deduct UK imports from the EU28 figure (using \u00a3=\u20ac for ease, and for making the point it hardly makes a difference), that means<strong>\u00a0world imports to EU27 at \u20ac1,625bn, of which the NI import figure will represent just 0.001% of EU imports<\/strong>.\u00a0<em><strong>This is the scale of the threat to the EU single market without the &#8216;backstop arrangements&#8217;?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Starting from a point where there isn\u2019t any difference in regulatory standards etc between the UK and EU27, change could be managed gradually. And proportionally, in respect of the volume of trade North\/South on the island of Ireland over that \u2018land\u2019 border, <strong>the EU single market is not going to be brought to its knees by what amounts to a box of oranges<\/strong>, except in absolutist irredentist terms.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-712 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Screenshot-2019-03-11-at-15.35.59-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"646\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Screenshot-2019-03-11-at-15.35.59-1.png 624w, https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Screenshot-2019-03-11-at-15.35.59-1-290x300.png 290w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There is a desperate need to get back to practicalities and a sensible look at the issue of managing borders, technology, and what it takes to live and trade in the real world and not in the legally framed utopia that the EU demands for itself. Without the backstop in the DWA,\u00a0<strong>let&#8217;s get some perspective on the prospect of that 0.001% risk to the EU single market collapsing in chaos. <\/strong>The EU has far more pressing issues that could\u00a0precipitate a crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The EU called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk\/news\/brexit\/uks-northern-ireland-brexit-plan-magical-thinking-and-peace-cant-be-used-as-bargaining-chip-eu-36069863.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">initial UK proposals on trade management<\/a> &#8216;magical thinking&#8217;, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedissenter.co.uk\/641\/the-magical-mystery-brexit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">then used the same magical thinking to suggest a border down the Irish Sea<\/a>. When Theresa May brought forward the idea of the Facilitated Customs Arrangement (FCA), which included elements of proposals around maximum facilitation of customs, such as use of automation, streamlined procedures and simplified customs declarations, Michel Barnier\u2019s response was pretty unequivocal:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201c<strong><em>The EU cannot\u2014and will not\u2014delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and excise duty collection to a non-member, who would not be subject to the EU\u2019s governance structures<\/em><\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We now have in the Withdrawal Agreement \u201cthe backstop\u201d that would allow for a process to operate not \u2018subject\u2019 to the <strong><em>UK\u2019s\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>governance structures. That does not even begin to look at the constitutional issues brought about by the backstop, best summarized by Dominic Raab following his resignation as Brexit Secretary:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe Cabinet was told that Northern Ireland will be treated as a third country for regulatory purposes. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s consistent with keeping the union together.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Just as the EU is a political project, which over-rides all else, so the EU has conducted negotiations with a view to that political project. The UK has seen it, still, in transactional terms. The twain doesn\u2019t really meet.<\/p>\n<p>It is absurd for people to suggest that the Government is pursing a policy of \u2018no-deal\u2019. Seriously, the problem is not that it seeks no-deal, but that May\u2019s Draft Withdrawal Agreement has such fatal flaws that it is broadly unpalatable to just about everyone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativehome.com\/thetorydiary\/2019\/03\/whats-at-stake-tomorrow-is-even-bigger-than-brexit-it-is-trust-in-politics-which-is-why-the-deal-as-it-stands-must-not-pass.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">In the UK the DWA threatens trust in politics.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>More generally, the DWA is not regarded as a conclusion to negotiation that is built on goodwill, or trust. Mutual interest is based on trust as well as outcome. The backstop is based on a lack of trust \u2013 an insurance policy sounds better, but scarcely hides the Irish Government return to centuries of animus towards perfidious Albion. So much for the value of 20 years of the Good Friday Agreement &#8211; its East West Strand 3 brought to nothing by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.drb.ie\/essays\/what-s-hecuba-to-him-?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Dublin%20Review%20of%20Books%20March%202019&amp;utm_content=Dublin%20Review%20of%20Books%20March%202019+CID_446cfcdf7f63d3c3c09b5f3ff943b7a5&amp;utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&amp;utm_term=Whats%20Hecuba%20to%20Him\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">resurgent Irish shibboleths<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativehome.com\/thetorydiary\/2019\/03\/whats-at-stake-tomorrow-is-even-bigger-than-brexit-it-is-trust-in-politics-which-is-why-the-deal-as-it-stands-must-not-pass.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Paul Goodman outlines in his Conservative Home article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cDowning Street suggests that a consequence of the deal being passed as it stands is that the Government would then be able to move on \u2013 to deal with childcare, housing, jobs, the NHS and other issues close to the heart of so many voters.\u00a0 But the effect of the deal going through would be the very opposite.\u00a0 For trade talks would wake issues from their uneasy sleep that voters thought had been put to bed: fishing, market access, bits of Chequers, migration numbers and, yes, the backstop.\u00a0 <strong>Brexit would roll on in its all-consuming way.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Paul concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-style: italic; font-size: 1rem;\">&#8220;To vary some words once said by Keith Joseph, Brexit is not enough.\u00a0 It must walk hand in and with trust.\u00a0 If tomorrow\u2019s vote takes place, it won\u2019t primarily be about Theresa May\u2019s future, much as some seem to think otherwise.\u00a0 At its core will be the issue of trust in politics.\u00a0 This will shrink further if the Commons passes a deal that the Government itself has indicated now needs a sweeping overhaul.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The only way to bring clarity, quickly, is to leave on March 29<sup>th<\/sup>and rebuild. The last thing the DWA or an Extension to A50 will bring is \u2018certainty\u2019 no matter how long Brexit is delayed.<\/p>\n<p>It is said that those who voted leave didn\u2019t vote for \u2018no-deal\u2019 nor to be poorer \u2013 based on various predictions of how future economic growth <em>might\u00a0<\/em>be affected. True. Perhaps. However, given the economic Armageddon that was predicted for the morning after a Leave vote \u2013 emergency budget anyone \u2013 it would have to be at least as bad to convince a public that is already distrustful of politicians that \u2018no deal\u2019 isn\u2019t such a bad choice.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jbBcyF57jts\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>UPDATE<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Had only just published the post above, and this appeared&#8230;. magical French thinking:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Y4_AeqE09Fs\" width=\"540\" height=\"304\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/G_7I3tYwXtE\" width=\"920\" height=\"518\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a style=\"font-size: 1rem;\" href=\"https:\/\/order-order.com\/2019\/03\/11\/france-unveils-technological-smart-border-solution\/?fbclid=IwAR2BRnWIBc6bgahh7soE2yfT6kpVmL8DxbOrlRSCjRtNhIMOIWIPtxVkH84\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">You can read the story here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<em>But of course, none of this could ever possibly work to monitor the tiny quantities of agricultural products and construction materials that cross the Irish border\u2026&#8221; H\/T <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GuidoFawkes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@GuidoFawkes<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Let&#8217;s get some perspective on that 0.001% risk to the EU single market collapsing in chaos.&#8221; A while back, in January, on the Clare Byrne show a guest who was ex Irish Military made a not often heard point on the Irish Border that so obsesses the EU and virtually every commentator on Brexit. His [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":717,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4,6],"tags":[40,57,60,67,78,88,116,131,157,191,231],"class_list":["post-710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brexit","category-dissenting","category-general","tag-brexit","tag-conservative-home","tag-controlled-border","tag-customs","tag-dominic-raab","tag-eu","tag-hmrc","tag-irish-revenue-commissioner","tag-lord-wolfson","tag-paul-goodman","tag-single-market"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www1.thedissenter.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}