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<\/p>\nWhile generally there is nothing certain about the future, one 99.99% certainty for 2010 is a British Parliamentary Election.\u00a0 Voting must take place before the summer, and the general consensus is for a May poll, though March may still be possible if Gordon Brown wants to avoid an unpromsing budget and go for it.<\/p>\n
thedissenter<\/em> will resist entering a seat by seat analysis: that has been undertaken elsewhere<\/a>, and there is sure to be more before the date of the election is finally announced. \u00a0At this point, selection of candidates is far from complete.\u00a0 There are a number of factors which have the potential to impact on turnout and final count, and this post will look at those rather than enter fanciful prediction<\/a> as others have done.<\/p>\n Most probably there will be two elections, again, in Northern Ireland \u2013 a nationalist one and a unionist one. There may be movements on the margins, but nothing of importance.\u00a0 The greatest impact on the final count is most likely going to be the polling strength of the TUV and the way in which that Party\u2019s presence, or not, affects the electoral balance in each constituency.<\/p>\n There is little on the horizon that is likely to impact on the Sinn Fein vote. Some might wishfully suggest that the woeful media management around family matters might wound Gerry Adams, and by association, Sinn Fein. Suzanne Breen spelled out the case in the Tribune<\/a>.\u00a0 Liam Clarke lays out the questions that linger in the Sunday Times<\/a>.\u00a0 Yet morality is hardly an issue for the Sinn Fein voter, happy to support a Party that has \u2018yet to renounce its history of violence and terror, makes the vast majority of people here, sick to their stomachs\u2019<\/a>: that would be a majority of the total population, but it seems not the \u2018nationalist\u2019 population.<\/p>\n Of course things might change if there was a credible nationalist alternative to Sinn Fein, but there is not.<\/p>\n Republicans who hold onto their Marxist socialism etc, those who abide by the \u2018physical force\u2019 tradition, or those who hold onto both, are too small in number to have an electoral impact at this time.\u00a0 Even so it seems likely that there will only be a marginal, though inconsequential, shrinkage of support for Sinn Fein, if not on a matter of morals then perhaps on the other issues within the Republican family <\/a>which rumble along.<\/p>\n The SDLP is going through a prolonged leadership contest. If the contest is not inspiring, it is because the choice holds little promise<\/a>. One has built a reputation on being hard on Loyalist paramilitaries (albeit without due care to Ministerial responsibilities<\/a>) and making ignorant remarks<\/a> about the Loyal Orders.\u00a0 The other has proved adept at building on political opportunity in retaining his seat and building a strong and respected SDLP presence in South Belfast. Neither has excelled outside their respective constituencies.<\/p>\n Whether a harder nationalist line or greater organizational capacity, rural nationalism or metropolitan social democracy, is chosen by the SDLP, the May (or even March) election will give little time for a new leader to make much of a mark on the political landscape.\u00a0 Bar opening statements of intent, the leadership contest seems entirely internal and lacking much rigour.<\/p>\n The SDLP will most probably hold its own in the coming election; not least because while it has little to offer by way of alternative to Sinn Fein, Sinn Fein is not in a place where it is able to build on past success and bury the SDLP. For now, the nationalist electorate is offered stale crusty policy from both parties which will result in a stalemate within that electorate.<\/p>\n There is a range of factors that make the election of much greater importance to Unionism.\u00a0 The Westminster expenses story has exercised the Unionist community to a far greater extent that it has within nationalism. Movies, the \u201cSwish Family Robinson\u201d headline, and a perception that Unionist politicians are more likely to employ family members combined to offend a Unionist sensibility that\u00a0 politicians are elected to serve their constituents\u2019 interests and not their own self-interest.<\/p>\n To some extent the expenses issue gave the TUV\u2019s Jim Allister his barn storming result at the European election in June 2009 \u2013 though DUP arrogance and UUP delusion probably played far a greater part.\u00a0 Whether or not the residue of this debate continues to undermine current MPs is something to consider, but would be only one factor of many in determining constituency outcomes. Some of the heat of the expenses row will be removed by sitting MPs, such as Iris Robinson, not standing again.<\/p>\n The debate within Unionism of \u2018unity\u2019 candidates usefully detracts from the lack of any discernable policy that makes the Conservative\/UUP electoral arrangements any great force for change in the forthcoming election.\u00a0 It is hard to believe that any serious unionist politician would believe that not taking an opportunity to defeat a Sinn Fein candidate (as might present itself in Fermanagh South Tyrone) will play well with the wider unionist electorate.\u00a0 Realistically it is only in Fermanagh South Tyrone that any agreement has the possibility of returning a Unionist candidate.\u00a0 However, the Conservative commitment to stand in every constituency in the UK means it has no time for local sensibilities and no strategy or apparent interest in inflicting a loss on Sinn Fein.<\/p>\n In South Belfast there is little UUP constituency infrastructure to conduct a substantial canvas \u2013 and the Assembly poll showed little chance of an Ulster Unionist win.\u00a0 Furthermore the sitting SDLP MP already represents a broadly \u2018conservative\u2019 sort of approach, and the Alliance candidate a more PC choice, that undermines any gain the Conservative Party would hope to achieve from the Catholic electorate in the constituency \u2013 not that the Conservative\/UUP hierarchies would be so calculatingly sectarian in their final selection.<\/p>\n By far the largest impact on the election will the issue of multi-mandates, or double-jobbing as it is more commonly described. Of course the legislation to enforce sole mandates must complete its course through Parliament, but already the principle has had consequences.\u00a0 Jeffrey Donaldson seems to have chosen Westminster over a Ministerial position in Stormont. Mark Durkan has chosen Westminster and initiated an SDLP Leadership election. Michael McGimpsey has cited commitment to Stormont for not putting his name forward in South Belfast.<\/p>\n More generally, the multi-mandate is more of a challenge for the DUP than the other Parties because it has a more MPs than any other Party.\u00a0 It will mean new faces entering the political frame.\u00a0 The DUP has been building profile for a number of their MLAs and Councillors, though perhaps circumstances will now accelerate advancement for a few.\u00a0 \u2018Knowing\u2019 your politician is important. Name recognition makes a big difference at election time.\u00a0 The DUP has also been hugely effective at building a constituency network. That should stand it in good stead. Its November conference was uplifting and rallied the troops, despite what might be viewed as setbacks in the previous year. The DUP enters the election in an entirely positive frame of mind.<\/p>\n A haphazard constituency presence and aging membership means the Ulster Unionist Party is less than able for this election.\u00a0 This may be compensated by the Conservative Party\u2019s money and campaigning expertise: though the Conservative Party seems to be overly relying on the newness of its entry into the electoral field to garner excitement around average and fairly unknown personalities. If it were a straight DUP v UUP\/Conservative contest then the DUP would race home lengths ahead.<\/p>\n The TUV showing at the European election, with Jim Allister thrusting into the political arena with as good as a third of the unionist vote, fundamentally altered any consideration of future unionist electoral outcomes. Of all the political leaders within Unionism, Jim Allister has the biggest headache.\u00a0 The has to perform in such a way as to be seen to make an advance on the European success, or make a case for why the performance is comparable.<\/p>\n Maximising the TUV vote would suggest the need to stand in all 18 constituencies. However, 66,000 votes spread across 18 constituencies will not win Westminster seats.\u00a0 The TUV autumn conference was notable that many of the attendees were stalwart workers who once knocked doors, placed posters, and manned phones for the UUP and DUP in past elections. These are the members with drive and devotion who delivered at the European election, but are best focused rather than spread thinly.<\/p>\n Of course the Ulster Unionist Party and Conservatives are banking on the TUV standing to damage the DUP vote in their favour. But this is not Dromore or the European elections. There will be no transfers available for Westminster.<\/p>\n